ID #5405

Monthly Visitor Statistics, Alan McIver, Quo Vadis

Quo Vadis first went online in May 2009, 57 months ago and, as time passes, my ability to forecast viewership improves. I conclude as follows:
  1. A polynomial of the form Y = A*X2 + B*X “best fits” the data at present, where Y is the number of visitors per month, and X is the number of months since we first went online. Values of A and B are 19.5 and 110 respectively. This corresponds to a growth rate of approximately 18% per month.
  2. Unsurprisingly, the data is cyclical, with peaks and valleys in December and June each year.
  3. “Word-of-Mouth” advertising is 8.55 times greater than visitors who find the site via direct searches of search engines like Google.
  4. The number of “hits” – i.e., the sum of visits on all pages on the site -- is about 2.5 times the number of visitors
  5. 1.5+ million Visitors from over 190 countries and over 5000 cities around the world have visited the site thus far, most of whom are from South Africa. However large numbers of visitors from the UK, USA, Germany and Holland and others, in declining order, also make use of the site.
  6. Viewership in December 2013 reached 89000 per month and will reach 100000 in January 2014 – far higher than was predicted earlier. This figure is forecast to reach 150000 and 200000 in December 2014 and 2015 respectively (see the attached graph).
  7. Cumulative viewership is forecast to reach 2.34 and 3.66 million in December 2014 and December 2015 respectively (see the attached graph).

Bear in mind however that all growth thus far is the result of either personal experience or word-of-mouth advertising -- the ultimate measure of whether or not a site is useful. No attempt has been made to:  

  1. Boost these numbers by marketing the site
  2. Boost these numbers by "optimization" of its Google ranking, which is currently low (2/10)
  3. Improve the "visual impact" of the site
  4. Make the site more easily accessible by giving it a catchy name

Why? Because such gimmicks are not in the interests of stakeholders, who need to know that the above numbers represent potential customers who are seriously interested in travel in Southern Africa rather than web surfers looking for pretty pictures etc. So unlike most other websites, substance rather than form is and will continue to be the approach adopted here.  

The above outstanding results suggest that Quo Vadis is ready to go to the next phase of development. I am as a result currently searching for partners able to add value to this initiative.If you know of anyone who may be interested, please ask them to contact me at alanmciver@gmail.com

Alan McIver, Dubai, January 2014






attached files: Cumulative Model.xls, Cyclicality Included.xls

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Last update: 2014-03-10 11:22
Author: Alan McIver
Revision: 1.42

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